I just read that last Friday in Singapore Zogby went out on a limb and predicted that Kerry was going to win on Nov 2. He said,
'Polling can be uncertain only if you rely on statistics alone,' is Mr Zogby's riposte. 'That's why an effective pollster has to rely on culture, history and sociology. I repeat, polling is the study of human behaviour, not simply a sampling of people's preferences.'
That may well explain his success. His big test will come on Nov 2. In Singapore last Friday, he flatly predicted that Mr Kerry would become the 44th President of the United States."
I don't know if pollsters usually flat out make predictions like that. What I do know is that in 2000 only Zogby and Harris were on target. Most of the other polls predicted a big Bush victory.
You can read the rest at http://www.zogby.com/news/index.cfm